Global Alternative Energy: 2026 Mid-Year Outlook: Broad-Based Demand, Volatility Creates Entry Points

研报英文原文证据摘录

Global Alternative Energy: 2026 Mid-Year Outlook: Broad-Based Demand, Volatility Creates Entry Points

h.z.gupta@jpmorgan.com7742-7978

decade, load growth has been stagnant at ~0.5% annually, approximately J.P. Morgan Securities plc

aligned with population growth, as broad electrification has been offset by Phil Buller

advances in the energy efficiency of appliances, buildings, and industrial (44-20) 3493-9403

processes. However, load growth estimates have recently risen substantially, phil.buller@jpmorgan.com

driven by an expected influx of AI-driven data center demand, air conditioning J.P. Morgan Securities plc

needs, broader electrification trends, and growth in domestic manufacturing Asia Auto & EV Battery

within the US. Our conversations with various industry participants suggest the Rebecca Wen AC

expected annual growth rate of electricity demand is now ~3-4% for the next (852) 2800-8505

five years, with nearly 140 GW of demand expected by 2030 from US data rebecca.y.wen@jpmorgan.com

centers alone. We expect upward pressure on power pricing, which we believe J.P.MorganMorganBrokingSecurities(Hong (AsiaKong)Pacific)LimitedLimited/ J.P.

will be supportive of new project economics as well as repower/recontracting

opportunities for projects reaching the end of PPA. We believe more baseload

power sources such as gas turbines, nuclear, fuel cells, geothermal, standalone

BESS, and renewables paired with BESS to be direct beneficiaries, while

standalone renewables also benefit as carbon offsets as well as readily-

available power sources for utilities. We continue to believe the grid-connected

power is preferred by most end-users; however, grid connection queues could

lead to ~20-30% of incremental US data center demand to be generated behind

the meter (BTM).