Risk Reward Update: Southern Copper Corp. | Latin America

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Risk Reward Update: Southern Copper Corp. | Latin America

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Southern Copper Corp. (SCCO.N)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e

Copper LME per lb (US$) 4.56 6.11 5.85 5.67

Copper operating cash cost ex. by-

2.17 2.28 2.23 2.15

products per lb (US$)

Copper production vol (Kt) 956 917 880 941

Moly Production vol (Kt) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Molybdenum price per lb (US$) 22.04 28.35 22.00 18.00

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Copper and by-product metals prices RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2027e

Delivery of growth projects Global economy continues to improve,

Ability to maintain low production costs increasing copper demand further Sales / 15,371

Better-than-expected political scenario in Revenue 13,053 17,457

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE Mexico (US$, mm) 15,607

Higher production volumes

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland 0-10% Higher-than-anticipated commodity price

China and India 10,017

0-10% Japan RISKS TO DOWNSIDE EBITDA 7,766 11,675

0-10% Mainland China Slower-than-expected demand for metals (US$, mm) 10,093

10-20% North America Capacity expansion significantly below our

20-30% Europe ex UK forecasts

40-50% Latin America Higher costs erode operating margins Net income 5,496

4,080 7,115

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate Long-lasting strikes (US$, mm)

5,707View explanation of regional hierarchies here Changes in mining and environmental

regulations

MS ALPHA MODELS EPS 6.51

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING (US$) 4.93 8.40

2/5 24 Month 2/5 3 Month Inst. Owners, % Active 62.5% 6.93

BEST Horizon MOST Horizon

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 2x Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is