Enagas: Heading towards a small beat vs guidance. H1 26 first take

研报英文原文证据摘录

Enagas: Heading towards a small beat vs guidance. H1 26 first take

Javier Garrido AC Europe Equity Research

(34-91) 516-1557 22 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

javier.x.garrido@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Enagas (Neutral; Price Target: €15.40)

Investment Thesis

Enagas has built a reputation for consistently delivering a reliable earnings outlook and

shareholder-friendly policies through a generous dividend, as the capex requirements for

the group gradually declined. However, in the regulatory period 2021-26, we estimate a

persistent annual drop in regulated revenues as returns are gradually adjusted down and the

RAB declines, as minimal investments are needed in the Spanish gas sector near term.

Longer term, we see the opportunity to stabilize the RAB figure and subsequently make it

grow once the green hydrogen opportunity starts to materialize in the core regulated

business. In addition, in 2027 a new regulatory period should start and the allowed return

should be reset in line with prevailing interest rates. Enagas needs to manage the transition

from declining to growing RAB while it optimises its portfolio of international associates

to concentrate just on its European affiliates.

Valuation

We value Enagas on the basis of a SOTP where the Spanish core business is valued with a

DCF of the value potentially created in green hydrogen network investments plus a 1.1x

RAB multiple for the gas business, to incorporate the value of the non regulated assets.

Where we value the international affiliates in the Americas on the basis of premium

multiples, as we expect most of these assets to be sold throughout the next 3-5 years.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

We believe that upside risk to our valuation would come from a potential decision by Enagas