EU Staples (CPR & MICC on Pos CW; BEI on Neg CW), Lindt, Swatch, ...

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EU Staples (CPR & MICC on Pos CW; BEI on Neg CW), Lindt, Swatch, ...

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Henkel UW, Reckitt N). Beer names should remain supported by a strong summer season (prefer ABI) though spirits may see

EPS resilience on the back of tariff refunds while all eyes are on DGE CMD. See all details here

Hot or Cold? The team is also refreshing their Weather tracker for Europe and the US. The latest data points to relatively

limited variance in Europe weather in Q2 yoy, though confirm the hotter June and July summer in Europe. Weighted-average US

tracker saw weather somewhat worse in Q2 yoy, given higher rainfall and slightly deteriorating trends in July-to-date. Overall, the

companies with the highest exposure to DM weather-sensitive categories are Magnum, Campari and the Brewers (all in the range

of c30-60% of sales). Beiersdorf and Danone also have c10% of sales positively weather exposed. Overall, the data points to a

broadly limited Q2 weather impact but more positive for June/July, which are key summer months for sensitive categories and

companies. A supportive Q3 so far may point to potential upside in companies’ commentary in conf calls. By stock, they see

upside risk potential from weather impacted categories at Campari, Magnum and could also support the bottled waters business of

Danone. Whilst Beiersdorf could see some uplift to sun care sales, Celine continues to see Nivea performance is proving slow to

turn around, with topline and margin risk on FY26/27. Tons of details on the note here

Lindt shares ended the day down -2% yday after opening +2% with a more cautious message on pricing on the conf call.

Ed flagged key takes from the call: 1) into H2, expectation for Europe to return to growth, NA may moderate on tougher comps