Iberdrola: A beat, but no raise (for now). Entry into Nordic networks - H1‘26 first take

研报英文原文证据摘录

Iberdrola: A beat, but no raise (for now). Entry into Nordic networks - H1‘26 first take

Javier Garrido AC Europe Equity Research

(34-91) 516-1557 22 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

javier.x.garrido@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Iberdrola (Neutral; Price Target: €18.00)

Investment Thesis

We see the quality of Iberdrola’s assets as above average relative to the Pan-European

utilities sector, as the combination of significant exposure to networks, renewable and

developed markets should lead to more sustainable cash-flow generation than the sector

average and it should enjoy the benefits of organic and non-organic growth options,

particularly in the US and Brazil. In our view, this above-average quality of the asset mix

is now being largely recognised by most investors, which have re-rated Iberdrola trading

multiples to a premium to the Pan European utilities sector.

Valuation

We value Iberdrola based on the average of an SOTP and a DDM valuation.

Our SOTP is based on DCFs for most of its operations coupled with some businesses where

we use an EV/EBITDA multiple approach. Our DDM valuation is the result of discounting

the estimated dividends to 2032 at a cost of equity of 8.5% and assuming a 3.75% nominal

perpetuity growth rate in dividends thereafter.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

We believe the key risks that could keep our rating and target price from being achieved

include the following:

Downside risk – Spanish power prices. We are assuming a gradual reduction in Spanish

power prices in the period 2024-30, but commodity price weakness (particularly gas) and

faster-than-expected renewable capacity additions could drive Spanish power prices lower,

which would dent Iberdrola’s margins in the Spanish liberalised business, as Iberdrola is