JPMC Utilities Daily: 22 July: IBE, ENG, FORTUM, Global LNG Analyzer, German Utilities

研报英文原文证据摘录

JPMC Utilities Daily: 22 July: IBE, ENG, FORTUM, Global LNG Analyzer, German Utilities

Javier Garrido AC Europe Equity Research

(34-91) 516-1557 22 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

javier.x.garrido@jpmorgan.com

Fortum: Still looks expensive although we acknowledge earnings

upside - we stay UW (Research Available)

We remain UW on Fortum, with our €17.8 price target implying 12% downside to the current

share price. We see Vara consensus as in line with our expectations for 2026, but acknowledge

upside risk to 2027 earnings, where we are now 25% above consensus at the EPS level. This

is driven by our 2027 achieved power price assumption of €53/MWh, 11% above consensus

expectations, marking-to-market for the current forward curve. We remain Underweight as

we continue to see the risk-reward as unattractive, with the market pricing in expectations we

see as too optimistic - reflecting views of Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) with data

center offtakers at significant premia to the forward curves, and/or a faster tightening of the

Nordic power markets than we forecast. For exposure to power generation & volatility we

prefer names like RWE (OW, AFL), Engie (OW), Centrica (OW) and Naturgy (OW) - see

our report here. (Read full Research here)

Global LNG Analyzer: Middle East, what happened, what’s next

and takeaways from speaker series (Research Available)

What was/is at risk – yes, it’s Qatar LNG supply. At the start of the conflict, we identified

four major gas market risks, putting up to 150 Bcm/year of global gas supply at risk, and three

have now materialized. The core risk was and remains Qatar/UAE LNG exports via the Strait

of Hormuz (17% of global LNG). Since most of these volumes were contracted to Asia, the

disruption pushed Asian buyers into the spot market.