Philippine Property: 2Q26 Preview: Tough quarter ahead; capex and launch revisions signal sentiment shift

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Philippine Property: 2Q26 Preview: Tough quarter ahead; capex and launch revisions signal sentiment shift

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

22 July 2026

Philippine Property

2Q26 Preview: Tough quarter ahead; capex and launch

revisions signal sentiment shift

We expect residential pre-sales to have remained soft in 2Q26 as the oil price shock Property

ACweighed on sentiment, though green shoots emerged in June as buyers started bottom- Jelline Gaza, CFA

fishing for good deals. Benign construction cost inflation and a resilient 4-8% mall (63-2) 8878-1131

topline should offer some relief. We retain ALI at OW as our preferred macro jelline.gaza@jpmchase.com

turnaround play. Our 2026E NIAT sits 18% below consensus but higher C&I lots and Jeanette Yutan

softer margin contraction could be upside risks, while payment term discipline and (63-2) 8878-1188

peer-low inventory mitigate B/S and cancelation risk. We flag SMPH (N) as the key jeanette.g.yutan@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities Philippines, Inc.

potential re-rating candidate after its 30% underperformance versus ALI since mid-

June, now at 10x 2027E P/E. A return to 9-10% mall growth and no cancelation flare-

up as signaled by steady resi revenues could see investors revisiting the stock. We like

Table 3: 2Q26 Profit ReleaseRLC (OW) for accelerating 9% y/y NIAT growth (2Q-4Q26E) and exposure to

provincial consumption strength, and MEG (OW) for our expected DPS beat vs. Date

Street (Aug. declaration), office growth sequential recovery and sustained relative ALI Aug 5, 2pm

outperformance in resi pre-sales due to provincial launch shift. Across the sector, we FLI Aug 10

anchor on mall revenue growth as the cleanest read on consumer resilience, capex MEG Aug 3 or 4