Shopify: Expecting Upside to Guidance into 2Q Earnings; Focus on Growth Vectors, Gross Margins, Token Costs, & AI Leadership; Reit OW & Adding to Analyst Focus List

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Shopify: Expecting Upside to Guidance into 2Q Earnings; Focus on Growth Vectors, Gross Margins, Token Costs, & AI Leadership; Reit OW & Adding to Analyst Focus List

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

22 July 2026

Shopify

Expecting Upside to Guidance into 2Q Earnings; Focus Overweight

on Growth Vectors, Gross Margins, Token Costs, & AI SHOP, SHOP US

Leadership; Reit OW & Adding to Analyst Focus List Price (21 Jul 26):$123.03

▲Price Target (Dec-27):$155.00

Prior (Dec-26):$150.00

We’re bullish on Shopify shares & expect upside to guidance into 2Q26 earnings

on Wednesday, 8/5. SHOP shares are +29% off May lows (vs. SPX +1%) & investor Internet - Large Cap / Mid & Small

Capsentiment is improving across GMV/Revenue growth trajectory, Gross Margin &

token implications, & SHOP’s broader AI strategy. We project solid GMV growth Bryan M. Smilek AC

supported by strength across SMB cohorts, enterprise, geographies, & emerging (1-212) 622-8886

bryan.smilek@jpmorgan.com

channels (POS, B2B). While int’l growth & Enterprise volume ramp may prove more

volatile, we believe SHOP’s 2Q Revenue growth guide should prove conservative. Doug Anmuth

(1-212) 622-6571

Chase Card data suggests 2Q U.S. CNP growth of +11% Y/Y, acceleration vs. +10% douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com

Y/Y in 1Q, though there remains concern around macro uncertainty tied to recent

Andrew Watts

geopolitical activity. We believe macro exposure is limited, w/~16% of GMV cross- (1-212) 622-9400

border, of which ~50% involves US inbound/outbound. We project 2026 Y/Y GMV andrew.watts@jpmorgan.com

growth of +29% (+28% FXN) & Revenue growth of +30% (+29% FXN). Gross J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Margins continue to face headwinds from Merchant Solutions mix shift, AI/LLM

costs, & growth initiatives.