JPM EM Corporate Strategy Daily

研报英文原文证据摘录

JPM EM Corporate Strategy Daily

J P M O R G A N Global Credit Research

22 July 2026

Emerging Markets Corporate

Strategy

Yang-Myung Hong AC

(1-212) 834-4274

ym.hong@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

We examined cross-market default and recovery trends YTD concluding that

Alisa Meyers

EM corporates ex. Latin America compare favorably versus DM credit.

(1-212) 834-9151

Indeed, EM corporate HY YTD default rate, at 2.5%, is running ahead of DM credit alisa.meyers@jpmorgan.com

as Latin America default rate reached 6.2%YTD, whereas other EM regions are J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

in-line or better than DM with 0.1% for Asia, 0.3% for EM Europe and 1.2% for Dhawal U Mehta

ME&A.US HY default activity picked in June as total volumes affected rose to an (91-22) 6157 3779

18-month high, ending 1H26 at 1.3%. On an LTM par-weighted basis (including dhawal.mehta@jpmchase.com

distressed exchanges), activity increased to 2.67% which is at its highest level since J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

January 2024, resulting in HY rates ending above LL (2.29%) for the first time

since Dec-22. Our US HY strategists continue to forecast 2026 HY default rate of

1.75%, picking up to 2.25% in 2027. On the European HY side, default rates

slowed in 1H26 to 0.7% or 1.4% annualized, down from 2.2% annualized pace

over 2H25 while the trailing 12m default rate fell to 1.9% at June-end compared

to 4.0% a year ago. Our strategists expect this to pick up going forward, ending the

year at 3.75% although this is largely dependent on a single issuer, without which

the European HY default rate would be closer to 2% for 2026. EM sovereigns have

had no defaults YTD, extending their clean slate from 2024 to today. Our EM

sovereign strategists have not called for any sovereign defaults this year, but they