Lindt & Sprüngli Model Update: Risks on H2 volumes recovery and 2027E LFL

研报英文原文证据摘录

Lindt & Sprüngli Model Update: Risks on H2 volumes recovery and 2027E LFL

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

22 July 2026

Lindt & Sprüngli Underweight

LISP.S, LISP SW

Model Update: Risks on H2 volumes recovery and Price (21 Jul 26):CHF9,400.00

2027E LFL Price Target (Dec-27):CHF8,700.00

Following Lindt & Sprüngli’s H126 results we update our model. We expect FY26 Underweight

organic sales of +3.8% (vs +3.9% prior) with volume -3.1% and pricing +6.9%. We

LISN.S, LISN SW

see risk to the company's guidance for 4-6% amidst low visibility on the Price (21 Jul 26):CHF95,600.00

stabilisation of H2 volume in a market that remains demand constrained and

Price Target (Dec-27):CHF87,000.00

competitive (with price gaps that we see have opened vs peers). For 2026E, we

raise EPS slightly by c1% on FX and some margin benefit from tariff

reimbursement. Attention is on the range of outcomes for 2027, for which the European Food Producers and

company has indicated pricing will unlikely be positive. We continue to model Household & Personal Care

modestly negative pricing of -2% in 2027E, with volumes +5.5% leading to LFL Products

+3.5% (unchanged). Key determinants will be the scope of market volume Edward G Hockin AC

recovery (in past cases, progressive to the LT category average of 1-2%) and (44-20) 7742-6937

competitor pricing actions. Whilst a COGS deflation of JPMe -10% in 2027E is edward.hockin@jpmorgan.com

supportive of EBIT margin, we see the risk of a CHF ~200m cost tailwind being Celine Pannuti, CFA

mostly absorbed by price concessions and higher marketing. Our EBIT/EPS 27 (44-20) 7134-7123

celine.pannuti@jpmorgan.com

estimates are c2% below consensus and we see risk to the premium multiple of 28x J.P. Morgan Securities plc