J.P. Morgan Perspectives: The Great Unwind: Six Ds shaping the outlook beyond 2026

研报英文原文证据摘录

J.P. Morgan Perspectives: The Great Unwind: Six Ds shaping the outlook beyond 2026

22 July 2026

Executive Summary

We provide an update on our six Ds for 2026—Deficits, Deregulation, De-

carbonization, De-population, De-globalization, and De-dollarization—and find

divergence in speed, with some forces moving faster than a year ago. The six Ds are

competing structural forces, with expanding fiscal dominance and an AI-driven

investment cycle keeping upward pressure on real rates. Deregulation supports growth,

while energy security concerns are pulling forward de-carbonization. De-globalization

and de-dollarization generate the most headlines but remain evolutionary, while de-

population is the most underpriced long-run risk, together reinforcing a regime of higher

real yields, higher risk premia, and higher macro and market volatility. Of the six Ds we

are monitoring in 2026, deficits, deregulation, and energy security-driven de-

carbonization are accelerating the fastest.

1. Deficits: Debt stabilization is out of reach as industrial policy and higher rates raise

the fiscal bill, volatility and term premium.

2. Deregulation: A pro-growth tailwind that can counteract fiscal headwinds and keep

the US ahead.

3. De-carbonization: Gaining momentum as energy security concerns rise and clean

tech costs continue to fall.

4. De-population: Headwinds and slower migration are underestimated, and trend

growth could slow even with AI.

5. De-globalization: Globalization is being rewired, not reversed, and US demand and

“China + 1” drive new trade winners.

6. De-dollarization: Slow-moving but the real move is toward payments autonomy,

led by China.

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