Colombia: Growth momentum accelerates on services, but the expansion remains uneven

研报英文原文证据摘录

Colombia: Growth momentum accelerates on services, but the expansion remains uneven

Diego W. Pereira Latin America Economic Research J P M O R G A N(1-212) 834-4321 22 July 2026

diego.w.pereira@jpmorgan.com

revisions, which make single-month prints an imperfect gauge of underlying trends.

Nevertheless, the monthly print came after five consecutive positive monthly prints,

highlighting the strength of growth momentum through the year. Incorporating the latest

release and series revisions, three-month sequential growth has surged to 8.7% q/q saar, well

above our potential growth estimate (2.8%) and the strongest pace since 2021, following a

3.4% increase in 1Q and a -2.1% contraction in 4Q25. Year-to-date, growth has averaged a

very strong 7.6%ar. In oya terms, adjusted for seasonality and calendar effects, activity rose

4.1% oya.

The supply-side breakdown offers a clearer read on current dynamics, with a marked

acceleration in momentum across all three sectors. Services rose 0.9% m/m, sa, in May, with

sequential momentum accelerating to 8.9% annualized, following a 4.6% increase in 1Q;

year-to-date growth stands at a stunning 8.3% ar, well above potential. The acceleration in

momentum has been broad-based, led by financial services, recreation and entertainment,

and public sector services, while commerce momentum is also trending higher. We continue

to see services, particularly household consumption-linked segments, as the main growth

engine at least through the end of 2Q and early 3Q, supported by the unprecedented

minimum-wage increase, expanded government cash transfers, resilient labor market

conditions, and persistently strong remittances.

Despite another modest monthly decline in May, momentum within the primary sector

strengthened meaningfully.