CME Group Inc.: Non-Operating Beat in 2Q26; Core Business Delivers, but Newer Product Innovations (i.e., Perps, SSFs, Prediction Mkts) More in Focus

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CME Group Inc.: Non-Operating Beat in 2Q26; Core Business Delivers, but Newer Product Innovations (i.e., Perps, SSFs, Prediction Mkts) More in Focus

also gains and losses from

CME’s equity investments and marks from CME’s securities books. Also Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

flowing through this line is the float earned on CME’s cash on balance sheet, Adj. EPS ($)

now totaling ~$2,144mn at the end of the period even after repurchasing ~ 2025A 2026E 2027E

$695mn worth of shares this quarter, its highest quarterly level since Q1 2.80 3.36A 3.14

Q2 2.96 2.99A 3.11

announcing the December 2024 buyback program and intention to use Q3 2.68 2.91 3.11

OSTTRA proceeds for opportunistic repurchases. Q4 2.77 2.90 3.14

• RPC recovered in June on softer volumes. To a lesser extent, 2Q results FY 11.20 12.20 12.51

surprised to the upside on clearing and transaction fees ($1,353mn vs JPMe Style Exposure

$1,333mn) which exceeded expectations due to somewhat higher than

modeled RPC. RPC was tracking lower sequentially in CME’s key interest rate

and energy franchises through May, and, as such, we had modeled a sequential

decline for the full quarter; however, RPC strengthened in June, pushing the

full-quarter RPC higher and beating our numbers on lower volume tiering and

better member mix—total RPC $0.678 vs. JPMe $0.667. 2Q26 interest rate

RPC came in at $0.480 (JPMe $0.473) and energy RPC totaled $1.131 (JPMe

$1.055).

• Perps remain top of mind, but CME reiterates little risk to core business.

Perpetual futures, or perps, captured much of the initial air time on the 2Q26

earnings call given that CME’s CEO Terry Duffy has been one of the most vocal

opponents of the new product; recall, CME sued the CFTC on June 18 over the

Commission’s approval of on-shoring BTC perps.