ASEAN FIRST TO MARKET

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ASEAN FIRST TO MARKET

Asia Pacific Equity Research

ASEAN First to Market 23 July 2026

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ASEAN Equity Strategy (Khoi Vu, CFA/Rajiv Batra), Global

From Tailwinds Back to Headwinds

ASEAN equities have rebounded 11% since early June, driven by the announcement of a US-Iran peace deal , falling

oil prices in 2Q, easing inflation fears, inexpensive valuations and foreign buying in select markets. However, the

region now faces three key near-to-medium-term risks: (1) a re-escalation of the conflict in Iran, which is again pressuring

energy prices ; (2) higher US rates and a stronger dollar (potentially catalyzing further central-bank tightening through 2H26);

and (3) a rising probability of a “ Super El Niño ”, which could further weigh on the region’s earnings trajectory and investor

sentiment. Looking at earnings revisions for ASEAN equities, 2026 EPS was revised down by 4%/6% in 3M/6M respectively (

Table 2 earningsrevisions(%)MSCIThailand). However, Thai equities should fare better, supported by stronger growth momentum, higher exposure to AI-themes

within the ASEAN region, energy-linked earnings upside; and tourism/export competitiveness. By contrast, Philippine equities

may face intensifying headwinds amid weaker growth, higher rates, and limited re-rating catalysts. We are upgrading Thailand

equities to Neutral and downgrading Philippine equities to Underweight.

Thailand Banks (Harsh Wardhan Modi)

Parsing through asset quality details post 2Q results

Big 4 Thailand bank stocks have fallen 1-7% over the last 2 days (vs SET index -0.8%), despite generally strong results led by

KBank and KTB. This appears to be due to a combination of a high bar set by the 26% rally in the last 3M ahead of results (for