Temenos: Q2 revenue shortfall, though slipped deals largely signed in early Q3; full year guidance reconfirmed

研报英文原文证据摘录

Temenos: Q2 revenue shortfall, though slipped deals largely signed in early Q3; full year guidance reconfirmed

Toby Ogg AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 7742-3278 23 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

toby.ogg@jpmorgan.com

Price Performance Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation

Investment Thesis

We see upside to the share price driven by a combination of

continued earnings upgrades (accelerating sales ramp, fading

headwinds, margin expansion, and incremental buybacks) and

re-rating potential as sustained execution gradually unwinds the

discount the stock still carries from prior credibility concerns.

We think Temenos is among the most defensible names on the AI

front in our software coverage — its deep entrenchment at the

intersection of high regulatory burden and high technical

complexity in its financial services end-market makes

YTD 1m 3m 12m displacement difficult. Further, its volume-based revenue

Abs -16.4% 2.9% -17.0% 12.8% model, tied to accounts and transactions rather than seats, means

Rel -35.0% 9.0% -27.8% -6.2%

growth scales with banking activity even if headcount shrinks.

Company Data With scope for continued earnings upgrades, a path to re-rating

Shares O/S (mn) 73 as execution rebuilds investor confidence, and deep

52-week range (CHF) 87.00-58.75 entrenchment in its highly complex and regulated customer

Market cap ($ mn) 5,945.04

Exchange rate 0.81 base, we believe Temenos offers one of the most attractive risk-

Free float (%) 65.6% reward profiles in European Software today.

3M ADV (mn) 0.18

3M ADV ($ mn) 15.3 Valuation

Volatility (90 Day) 37 Our Temenos price target is CHF95 Dec-27. CHF95 Dec-27

Index STOXX Europe 600 Technology

BBG ANR (Buy | Hold | Sell) 10|7|2 implies Temenos trades on 1yr fwd P/E of ~20x (or ~24x

including SBC) at that point in time.