2Q26 Advance GDP: Strong, Well-Balanced Growth Dynamic

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2Q26 Advance GDP: Strong, Well-Balanced Growth Dynamic

Update

July 23, 2026 02:38 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia LimitedMSouth Korea | Asia Pacific Kathleen Oh

Chief Korea/Taiwan Economist

2Q26 Advance GDP: Strong, Kathleen.Oh@morganstanley.com +852 2848-7340

Well-Balanced Growth Dynamic

The Korean economy expanded again in 2Q26, even after a large

rebound in the prior quarter. A solid growth trend across both

the domestic and external accounts points to meaningful upside

risk to our growth forecasts and those of the BoK for 2026.

Exhibit 1 : 2Q26 GDP growth exceeded

Second consecutive quarter of growth exceeding expectations: 2Q26 GDP grew

expectations even after a large rebound in the

3.7%Y, down slightly from the 3.8% recorded in 1Q26 but beating the consensus

previous quarter

forecast of 3.5% and our forecast of 3.4%. On a sequential basis, it expanded 0.6%Q

seasonally adjusted, well above the 0.4% consensus and the BoK forecast of 0.2%. Korea: Real GDP growth trend

GDP growth, %Q sa GDP growth, %Y Our forecast

Despite the unfavorable base from the strong print in 1Q26 and spillover from the 4

geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, we gauge that the strength in exports in 3 Actual:3.7%Y

particular has largely offset any negative impact from external events. 2

1 0.6%Q sa

At the same time, real GDI (which captures the changes in terms of trade and net

overseas income flows on top of GDP output) surged 15.6%Y, reflecting soaring

memory prices driven by AI-related demand, and accelerating from the already- -1 2Q22 4Q22 2Q23 4Q23 2Q24 4Q24 2Q25 4Q25 2Q26

elevated level of 13.2% recorded in Q1. Taken together, this sets the annual growth Source: Bank of Korea, Morgan Stanley Research

trajectory well above our current forecast of 2.8% for 2026 to the mid-3% level.