SANTOS LTD (STO.AX): JunQ First Take: Pathway to nameplate capacity becoming clearer as Barossa and Pikka de-risk nicely

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SANTOS LTD (STO.AX): JunQ First Take: Pathway to nameplate capacity becoming clearer as Barossa and Pikka de-risk nicely

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22 Jul 2026 20:24:30 ET │ 12 pages

Santos Ltd (STO.AX)

JunQ First Take: Pathway to nameplate capacity becoming clearer as

Barossa and Pikka de-risk nicely

CITI'S TAKE Buy

Price (22 Jul 26 16:00) A$7.85 STO reported JunQ production broadly in-line with CitiE. The 4% miss

Target price A$8.30 versus VA was driven by lower Barossa production, partially offset by

stronger PNG volumes. As previously flagged, consensus has overlooked Expected share price return 5.7%

the realised pricing lag however we expect the market to look through this Expected dividend yield 5.0%

with stronger pricing in 2H. Updated CY26 production guidance is ~4% Expected total return 10.7%

below previous MP but reflects known commissioning challenges at Market Cap A$25,495M

Barossa. The current averaged observed ~10/11 day cargo loading period US$17,840M

provides confidence that the project can soon achieve the 8 day cadence

mentioned . 1H line-item guidance suggests higher costs of sales however

this is offset by a lower effective tax rate. Implied core NPAT expectations

are benign. We expect investors to appreciate continued de-risking of Tom WallingtonAC

Pikka and Barossa. We anticipate further detail on the Beetaloo appraisal +61-282-254-326

campaign at the August result two appraisal wells in 3Q expected to give tom.wallington@citi.com

greater clarity on the resource potential. Sumeet Ozarde

sumeet.ozarde@citi.com

JunQ result — Production of 23.1mmboe was broadly in line with CitiE

(23.4mmboe), but modestly below VA consensus (24.0mmboe) due to VA's overly

optimistic Barossa production. Average realised pricing was in line with CitiE