Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Chubb Ltd (CB.N)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e

Operating ROE (%) 14.4 14.3 13.7 13.2

P&C NWP Growth (%) 6.0 5.0 4.9 4.5

P&C Combined Ratio (%) 85.7 85.4 86.2 86.1

P&C AY Loss Ratio ex. Cats (%) 55.5 55.5 55.6 55.5

PPD % EP (%) (2.5) (1.9) (1.7) (1.7)

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Claims inflation, Reserve Strength RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

Commercial Pricing cycle Stronger revenue growth with durable pricing 27.84 Weather trends (Severity and Frequency) Favorable PYD EPS

Underlying Margins More rapid share buybacks ($) 25.91 28.76

Yield Cycle Improved interest rate environment should be 27.17

earnings accretive

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE RISKS TO DOWNSIDE Net income 10,488

10,080 10,925

0-10% Europe ex UK Declining P&C pricing ($, mm) 10,517

0-10% Latin America Underwriting margin deterioration

0-10% UK Global growth and F/X headwinds

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland Larger than expected investment portfolio Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates 20-30% China and India losses Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

50-60% North America Large catastrophes or adverse development

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate Declining interest rate environment would be a

View explanation of regional hierarchies here headwind

MS ALPHA MODELS OWNERSHIP POSITIONING

Inst. Owners, % Active 56.4%

2/5 24 Month 1/5 3 Month

BEST Horizon MOST Horizon HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.4x

HF Sector Net Exposure 7.5%Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is

the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

Quintile exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

trends.