Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

d with implied volatility data from the options market as of 21

Jul 2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either

three-months’ or one-years’ time. View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology here

BULL CASE €48.00 BASE CASE €26.50 BEAR CASE €12.00

Confidence rebuilding quickly, no AI impact Stable environment, AI headwinds to AI pressure combined with de-rating

growth

We assume 4% organic growth in FY26, We reflect the impact of (1) continued

which would imply ramp-up in activity from We expect organic growth of 2% in FY26e, challenging staffing backdrop and (2)

1Q26 onwards. This is driven by better led by a trough in activity in H1 2026 before stronger headwinds from AI. We assume

macroeconomic sentiment and upside from a stabilization from 2H26 onwards. We organic growth of -3% in FY26 and -5% next

continuous pricing strength due to talent forecast stable operating margin in FY26e at year. As a result, EBIT margin declines to 3%

scarcity. This results in improved operational 3.1%, mainly driven by opex savings while this year and 2.5% in 2027. We assume -2%

leverage and margins at 3.5% for this year. gross margin remains under pressure. We organic growth per year over the midterm

We assume MSD organic growth over the forecast 3% organic growth and 20bps and no change in margin as volume/pricing

midterm and margin returning to the margin improvement per year over FY27-29, pressures are offset by SG&A reduction

midpoint of management's 5-6% guidance. reflecting a stable market backdrop thanks to AI-led efficiency gains. We also

combined with mounting AI headwinds. apply a lower fair value multiple, in line with

other AI disrupted stocks.