Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Beach Energy Ltd (BPT.AX)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS CATALYST CALENDAR

Drivers Jun 2025 Jun 2026e Jun 2027e Jun 2028e Date Event Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley

Total Sales Volume (mmboe) 24.7 22.8 22.7 22.9 Q3 2026 Vic/L35 transaction completion

Brent oil Assumption (US$/bbl) 74 79 79 70 06 Aug 2026 FY26 Full Year Results

FX rate (A$/US$) (000s) 0.65 0.70 0.70 0.70 21 Oct 2026 FY27 First Quarter Activities Report

11 Nov 2026 Beach Energy Ltd Annual Shareholders Meeting

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Oil prices and Australian gas prices RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Jun 2026e

Further discoveries, e.g., Perth Basin gas, Otway Higher commodity prices

Basin gas, Western Flank oil, Taroom Trough Production and synergies from acquisitions Sales / 1,800

Cooper Basin turnaround, including production Easing of domgas gas policy intervention Revenue 1,790 1,997

enhancement and reserve upgrades Exploration campaign discoveries (A$, mn) 1,904

Waitsia 2 ramp rate and swap payments

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE

Lower commodity prices

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE EBITDA

Capex overruns/delays (e.g., Otway and Perth 582 1,071

(A$, mn)

Basin projects) or reserve downgrades 965

Contract re-pricing of east coast gas (A$12/GJ

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland 100% China and India price anchor applied to LNG 610

exporters/competitors) EBIT

354 697

Gas swap and contract management (A$, mn)

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate

View explanation of regional hierarchies here OWNERSHIP POSITIONING

0.17

EPS Inst. Owners, % Active 30.9% 0.10 0.20

MS ALPHA MODELS (A$)

0.16 Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

3/5 3 Month

MOST Horizon Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research