To the Rescue: Delivering at Last on Long Promised DC New Build with 2Q?

研报英文原文证据摘录

To the Rescue: Delivering at Last on Long Promised DC New Build with 2Q?

TDA estimates ~$200Mn higher in 2028-29, due to continued expansion in PJM pricing and

modest improvement in Texas prices; 2026 down ~$135Mn as we adjust for lower volumes/pricing Exhibit 1 - IPP 2027, 2028, & 2029 Free

in ERCOT; at $5.5Bn we are at mid-point of guidance; expect 2026 guidance re-affirmed. Cash Flow Yields as Published Excluding

Unannounced Data Centers & Buybacks

Our EPS and FCF/sh 2025-2030 CAGR at ~21.5% and ~23% respectively, materially higher vs. Excluding buybacks creates comparability

a long-term CAGR of 14%+ for both Adj. EPS and FCFbG/per share guidance. Guidance remains 18% 2027 2028 2029

conservative, with no upside from DC new generation and uprates reflected in the numbers. 16%

14%

Capital allocation provides flexibility. We see a path for share buyback continuing with the 12%

construction of new gas generation. Current $11Bn commitment in 2026-30 is notable as it implies 10%

material step up in sharp repurchases in the outer years, but would expect some slowdown with 8%

new generation construction; still see a path to at least $1Bn-$2Bn repurchases with new generation 6%

construction; modeling ~$9Bn through 2030. 4%

2%

NRG TLN VST TA CN CPX CN HNRG

Valuation: Discount has widened vs. peers. NRG trades at 15% FCF yield ex-data centers; .Source: Jefferies LLC, Bloomberg, S&P Capital IQ, FactSet, &

materially cheaper vs. peer, with less exposure to PJM backstop procurement. NRG faces Company Filings

Highest yield of the group, with tangible

headwinds from PJM reforms and lower ERCOT power, albeit much smaller than other IPPs, while

delivery of expansion announcement

the stock is not pricing in upside from the new generation opportunities.Our base case is that NRG