2Q26 Follow-up—Questions about EWS Gov’t Remain even as Guidance is Reiterated

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2Q26 Follow-up—Questions about EWS Gov’t Remain even as Guidance is Reiterated

USA | Information Services

Equifax EquityJulyResearch21, 2026

COMPANY UPDATE2Q26 Follow-up—Questions about EWS Gov't

RATING BUYRemain even as Guidance is Reiterated

PRICE $173.00^

We have lowered our 2026 net revenue growth estimate by -110 bps to +7.1%

y/y cc due to slower-than-anticipated growth in Mortgage and Gov't Verification PRICE TARGET | % TO PT $200.00 | +16%

in 2H26. Our adj EPS estimate decreases by $0.23 to $8.57 on unchanged 52W HIGH-LOW $271.84 - $150.75

margins. While our estimate falls near the midpoint of mgmt's guidance, we FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 99.1% | 339.64

continue to model mortgage originations up low-single digits, which is slightly MARKET CAP $20.6B

above mgmt's expectations of down low-single digits. TICKER EFX ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

2026 guidance narrowed. 2026 net revenue growth (ex-FICO) is expected to now be in the range

of +6.5-7.7% y/y cc (previously +6-8%), which was below our expectations (Jefferies: +8.2% y/y cc).

FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

While we had anticipated weaker mortgage volumes, we assumed the high end of the prior range

2026 2027 2026 2027

was still in play. If mortgage rates pull back to levels seen early in 2026, we believe there would

be potential to outperform the guide. Mgmt reiterated its ex-FICO adj EBITDA margin guidance of REV* <-1% -2% NM -4%

+50-100 bps of expansion y/y, which was expected (Jefferies: +80 bps y/y). Adj EPS was narrowed EPS* -3% -7% NM +1%

by $0.05 on both the top and bottom, which now ranges from $8.39-8.69.

2026 ($) Q1A Q2A Q3 Q4 FY

Gov't Verification misses in 2Q26 but converts $100M in new deals. Coming into 2Q, mgmt had EPS* 1.86 2.25 2.22 2.23 8.57