Third Party Claims Data Highlight Weaker Trends; Remain Selective In Hospitals

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Third Party Claims Data Highlight Weaker Trends; Remain Selective In Hospitals

Idea

July 22, 2026 04:01 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMHealthcare Providers | North America Craig Hettenbach

Equity Analyst

Third Party Claims Data Craig.Hettenbach@morganstanley.comJialin Jin +1 212 761-6435

Research Associate

Jay.Jin@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-3913

Highlight Weaker Trends; Kun Chen

Equity Strategist

Kun.Chen1@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-5228

Remain Selective In Hospitals Edward Tian

Edward.Tian@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-5558

Claims data for April and May point to a downtick in volumes, Erin Wright

suggesting Q1 weakness was more than weather and respiratory EquityErin.Wright1@morganstanley.comAnalyst +1 212 761-6137

comps. Payor mix also looks less favorable, with Commercial and Linda Bolduc

Medicaid share softening in 1H'26. Our only Overweight in the EquityLinda.Bolduc@morganstanley.comAnalyst +1 617 856-8009

group is THC and we remain Underweight HCA. Michelle Foley

Michelle.Foley@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4056

Derek GrossMWe analyzed a US medical claims dataset derived from clearinghouse submissions Research Associate

which covers billions of claims representing >170mn unique patients annually. While Derek.Gross@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2455

the scope of our analysis will continue to broaden, several meaningful insights are Healthcare Providers

emerging. North America

Industry View In-Line

All eyes are on the HCA and THC back-to-back earnings calls Friday. 2Q earnings

on July 24 for HCA (call at 10am ET) and THC (call at 11:30am ET) will be closely

watched (see - 2Q Earnings Playbook: Eyes on Utilization).

• With HCA having already negatively pre-announced (see - Cuts 2026 EBITDA

guidance on mix and Exchange headwinds; Remain Underweight), focus on