DocMorris UBS Evidence Lab inside: a more constructive view on margin prospects, upgrade to Neutral

研报英文原文证据摘录

DocMorris UBS Evidence Lab inside: a more constructive view on margin prospects, upgrade to Neutral

te (FY25-30E) of around

10% for DocMorris. Our top line forecasts, together with the company's improving cost focus, also

support an EBITDA (UBS adj.) margin expansion to 7.3% by FY30E (FY25: -4.4%). However, based on

our revised estimates, the company continues to create limited economic profit also over the

medium-term. Hence, we see a valuation discount as warranted. We rate DocMorris Neutral.

EVIDENCE We derive our regional sales forecasts running a proprietary market model to assess overall Rx and

OTC revenue prospects and apply our market share assumptions for mail order pharmacies overall

and DocMorris. We also UBS Evidence Lab tracked OTC selling prices to assess GP margin prospects.

WHAT´S PRICED IN? Using a reverse DCF valuation approach, suggests that DocMorris' current stock price discounts an

average sales growth of around 9-10% (FY25-30E) and EBITDA margins of on average 3-4%. This is

broadly in line with our expected average sales growth of 10% and average EBITDA margins of

around 3%. Consensus (LSEG-based) stands at around 11% for average sales growth and assumes

an average EBITDA margin of 2% for the same period.

Upside/Downside rrative o n of thisimage/chartt

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Plea se r efer report

Market share of Market share of

online pharmacies DocMorris in the EBITDA (reported)

Value drivers in the German Rx German online Rx margin

market market (FY30E)

(FY30E) (FY30E)

CHF32.2 upside 8.0% 38% 9.0%

CHF10.7 base 3.3% 36% 7.3%

CHF5.0

2.0% 34% 3.5%

downside

Source: UBS estimates

Company Description DocMorris Group is a leading European online pharmacy, operating several OTC and Rx online shops