Global Renewable Fuels: UBS Evidence Lab inside: Renewable diesel project tracker #10: tighter market

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Global Renewable Fuels: UBS Evidence Lab inside: Renewable diesel project tracker #10: tighter market

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GlobalUBS Evidence Lab inside: Renewable diesel

project tracker #10: tighter market Energy

Henri Patricot, CFA

Analyst

henri.patricot@ubs.com

Tighter market over 2026-27 +33-14-888 3033

We continue to see a supportive supply/demand outlook for Renewable Diesel & Joshua Stone

Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) in the near-term. We make again only minor changes Analyst

with this quarter's update but we see the demand outlook as further strengthened by joshua.stone@ubs.com

recent confirmation of mandate increases in Europe. Balances continue to point to a +44-20-7901 5588

clearly tightening market over 2026-27. We model combined RD/SAF demand growth Anna Kishmariya

of 4.4Mtpa this year and 2.6Mtpa in 2027. Capacity growth drops to 2.6Mtpa in Analyst

2026 from ~3Mtpa previously, as some extra supply slips into 2027 (+2.2Mtpa from anna.kishmariya@ubs.com

+1.8Mtpa). +44-20-7568 7999

Manav Gupta

Some near-term slippage, later projets on track Analyst

We update our global renewable diesel and SAF supply forecasts, using proprietary manav.gupta@ubs.com

satellite images from UBS Evidence Lab (image by Planet) for the same four projects as +1-212-713 4399

last time. All four show clear progress. Construction appears to be complete for more Ellinor Cederstroem Palliotto

units at Neste's Rotterdam expansion vs. 3 months ago. For the Moeve's 0.5Mtpa La Associate Analyst

Rabida renewable diesel unit, there is also clear progress towards a UBSe 2027 start-up. ellinor-cederstroem.palliotto@ubs.com

Work at the 0.5Mtpa Pengerang project in Malaysia, a JV between Petronas, Eni and +44-20-7567 1823