North American Oil & Gas Weekly Commodity Price E&P Scenario Analysis

研报英文原文证据摘录

North American Oil & Gas Weekly Commodity Price E&P Scenario Analysis

Global Research

20 July 2026ab

North American Oil & Gas Equities

North AmericaWeekly Commodity Price E&P Scenario Analysis

Energy

Josh Silverstein

Weekly Commodity Price Scenario Analysis Analyst

We continue to have a positive outlook on Energy and 2027 crude oil and natural gas josh.silverstein@ubs.com

price direction vs. the current $72/$3.31 WTI/HH strips. However, given continued crude +1-212-713 3513

oil and natural gas price volatility, we're highlighting what our coverage universe looks Peyton Dorne

like across four commodity decks ranging from $55-65 Brent/$51-81 WTI and $2.75- Analyst

$4.25 Henry Hub at consistent spending and production levels. We also refresh sector peyton.dorne@ubs.com

and commodity performance since the conflict started, which shows Energy +1-212-713 4359

underperforming the S&P 500 by 5%, despite the 2027 WTI strip rising 16%. Our E&P William Barber

Top Picks remain OVV, DVN, and AR. NESR is our OFS Top Pick. Associate Analyst

william.barber@ubs.com

Key Highlights From The Scenario Refresh +1-212-713 5553

What's Priced In? Assuming an 8% FCF/EV Yield/5.5x EV/EBITDA sector midpoint

(4.5-6.5x level range going back to 2000), we estimate the E&P stocks are pricing

in the low $60s WTI and $3.50 HH for 2027.

$75 Brent. At the $75/$3.75 Brent/HH deck, the Oil E&P FCF/EV Yields are 11.9%

and EV/EBITDA multiple is 3.9x. Gas E&Ps (ex-CRK) average 11.6% FCF/EV Yields

and 4.6x EV/EBITDA. Additionally, YE27 Net Debt/EBITDA levels would be 0.2-

0.3x, assuming return of capital programs remain at or above current company

initiatives. On this deck, the sector would be trading below the low end of the

4.5x-6.5x historical range, implying >20% upside to the 5.5x midpoint.