US Aerospace & Defense: From A to D - GE read-throughs and final 2Q previews

研报英文原文证据摘录

US Aerospace & Defense: From A to D - GE read-throughs and final 2Q previews

Global Research

20 July 2026ab

US Aerospace & Defense Equities

AmericasFrom A to D - GE read-throughs and final 2Q

previews Aerospace

Gavin Parsons

Analyst

gavin.parsons@ubs.com

We expect strong results across most of our coverage +1-212-713 2389

In our weekly note, we summarize top topics, notes we've published, MAX/787 Joao Santos

tracking, and more. Associate Analyst

joao.santos@ubs.com

Top topics / sentiment / most discussed:

+1-212-713 1437

GE Aerospace read-across: aftermarket growth a solid read-across for the Nicholas Labbadia

industry; 26% is sequential a deceleration but on a 1200bps more challenging Associate Analyst

comp, which most peers do not face (except WWD). Engine deliveries also nicholas.labbadia@ubs.com

increased sequentially and yoy from a strong Q1, a positive read for OE +1-212-713 5573

suppliers like HWM and WWD. GE sounded constructive on supply chain and

parts availability, a positive for the entire ecosystem; also SARO which has faced

parts shortages.

Updated business jet delivery tracking: Cirium data shows BBD at 29 vs.

consensus at 35; Cessna (TXT) at 38 vs. consensus at 46 (this is 4/5-7/4);

Gulfstream (GD) at 42 vs. consensus at 39. Reminder that tracking is less

accurate for small jets relative to large jets.

United Airlines retirements: UAL will retire 80 aircraft in 2027, relative to

approximately 110 deliveries. This is a high ratio of replacement vs. growth

(industry averages ~40% long-term), and adds to our list of risk watch items

for aftermarket. We expect retirements to pick up from ~1.5% of the fleet

today to ~3% by the end of the decade - which means 2026 is peak year for

fleet age. We see this driving an aftermarket deceleration but not declines.