US Airlines: ALK/AAL/LUV - What Are the Set-ups Into 2Q Prints This Week?

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US Airlines: ALK/AAL/LUV - What Are the Set-ups Into 2Q Prints This Week?

Global Research

20 July 2026ab

US Airlines Equities

AmericasALK/AAL/LUV - What Are the Set-ups Into 2Q

Prints This Week? Airlines

Atul Maheswari

Analyst

atul.maheswari@ubs.com

DAL and UAL prints - what are the key reads for ALK, LUV, and AAL? +1-212-713 4103

Delta and United both posted strong results, broadly checking all boxes, in our view. The Thomas Wadewitz

only blemish one can point to was the lack of 2Q top-line upside. DAL's 2Q PRASM was Analyst

up 11%, which was a bit below expectations even as TRASM (+12.4%) was in-line thomas.wadewitz@ubs.com

helped by MRO & cargo strength. UAL's 2Q TRASM of + 12.1% was also broadly in-line. +1-212-713 6116

Both companies pointed to a solid acceleration in 3Q and implied 4Q top-line. 2H non-

fuel unit costs for both airlines were in-line while 2H capacity commentary pointed to

continuing discipline - which was better than feared. However, high expectations,

positioning, as well as lack of 2Q revenue upside, drove the negative reactions on

earnings, in our view.

With respect to reads by business segments, both DAL and UAL pointed to

strong acceleration in domestic PRASMs in 2Q with ~600 bps & ~450 bps

sequential acceleration in the segment, respective. Latin and Pacific PRASMs

also saw solid acceleration while Atlantic had a least acceleration in 2Q YoY vs.

1Q YoY. In addition, premium revenues remained strong, but gap between

main cabin and premium shrunk a bit in 2Q. Both DAL and UAL saw DD%

increase in main cabin unit revenues, highlighting a notable sequential

acceleration in this segment.

What are the bars/buyside bogeys for airline prints this week?

AAL - Based on convos, we think the bar is 15-16% revenue growth for

2Q with break-even EPS.