First Read Schindler Q2 2026 Adj EBIT 1% below cons but guide unchanged and very solid margin dynamics more than compensate

研报英文原文证据摘录

First Read Schindler Q2 2026 Adj EBIT 1% below cons but guide unchanged and very solid margin dynamics more than compensate

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation 28.0%

Forecast dividend yield 2.6%

Forecast stock return 30.6%

Market return assumption 5.2%

Forecast excess return 25.3%

Company Description

Schindler is an elevator and escalator (E&E) supplier active in production, installation,

maintenance and modernisation. It ranks number two globally in lifts and number one in

escalators (by value). We see its global market share at c15%, while market leader Otis holds

c18%. Other competitors include Kone and ThyssenKrupp. We estimate around half of the

group's turnover and the majority of EBIT are derived from stable maintenance and repair

activities. It operates nine elevator and four escalator factories, as well as five R&D centres

around the world.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

SCHP: Our price target is based on a DCF discounting 15% mid-term margin, mid-term

growth of 6%, a WACC of 7.5%, and terminal growth of 2%. Key risks to our PT and Buy

rating include: Further softness and lack of recovery in the construction markets across

Europe, US and China; Pricing competition; Further severe input costs inflation.

KONE: Our base case scenario is based on a three stage DCF discounting 15% mid-cycle

margin (remaining below prior peak and the company's 16% target), 6% organic growth,

100% NOPAT to FCF conversion and a WACC of 7.5%.Key risks include: further cost

inflation; a pronounced construction market correction in China driven by liquidity concerns;

lack of recovery in the US and Europe; increased pricing competition in service market in

developed world.

First Read: Schindler 21 July 2026 ab 3