European Logistics: China-Europe airfreight signs of deterioration post 1 July de minimis changes. Better prospects on Asia-US

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European Logistics: China-Europe airfreight signs of deterioration post 1 July de minimis changes. Better prospects on Asia-US

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European Logistics Equities

Europe including UKChina-Europe airfreight signs of deterioration

post 1 July de minimis changes. Better prospects Industrial

on Asia-US Cristian Nedelcu,AnalystCFA

cristian.nedelcu@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 4375

Headwinds to Asia–Europe airfreight going forward, more favourable Samuel Goldstone

Analystbackdrop on Asia–US

samuel.goldstone@ubs.com

We analyse dedicated capacity deployment trends and airfreight rates in the first two +44-20-7567 0338

weeks of July and see signs of weakness on rates on Asia–Europe. which we mainly

Thomas Wadewitz

attribute to the de minimis regulatory changes. Looking ahead, we expect a favourable

Analyst

backdrop for Asia–US airfreight volumes, rates, and GP/unit in 2H26 with headwinds on thomas.wadewitz@ubs.com

Asia–Europe. We note DSV discloses that ~35% of their airfreight volumes are on Asia– +1-212-713 6116

Europe and ~17% on Asia–US. We believe the air GP/unit achieved in Q2/early Q3 are

Sebastian Vogel, CFA

not sustainable going forward and expect gradual sequential declines.

sebastian.vogel@ubs.com

i. China–Europe: Volumes and capacity are sequentially declining (Figure 2.whilstgrowthonAsia-Europeis5%y/yfortotalairfreight,withDHLgrowingat23%y/y). While +41-44 239 90 45

airfreight rates are up y/y, we calculate they are not fully offsetting the incremental fuel

cost y/y (Figure 8China-Europeairfreightratesarenotfulypasingtheincrementalfuelcosty/y.Thelatestunderlyingrate($/kg)increasey/yislowerthantheincrementalfuelcosty/y). We attribute the recent deterioration in rates mainly to the decline in