Australian Resources: El Nino to support Australian bulk miners; & Spot Scenario

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Australian Resources: El Nino to support Australian bulk miners; & Spot Scenario

Powered by Lab Global20 JulyResearch2026ab Evidence UBS YES

Australian Resources Equities

AustralasiaEl Nino to support Australian bulk miners; &

Spot Scenario Mining

Lachlan Shaw

Analyst

lachlan.shaw@ubs.com

El Nino; & Spot Scenario +61-3-9242 6387

Weather forecasters are projecting a strong, or "Super" El Niño weather pattern Fintan Collins

through the rest of 2026 and into 2027. We assess the implications of the evolving El Associate Analyst

Niño climate setup for Australian bulk commodities, where improving operating fintan.collins@ubs.com

conditions may provide a modest but supportive backdrop for coal and iron ore +61-3-9242 6179

producers. Separately, we update UBS's spot scenario, which gauges fair value Annie Zhou

momentum should spot prices maintain. On our spot scenario, MIN and FMG have Associate Analyst

strongest spot fair value momentum in our diversified miners coverage universe. annie.zhou@ubs.com

+61-2-9324 2000

El Niño may emerge as operational tailwind for Australian bulk miners Dim Ariyasinghe

A strengthening El Niño, coupled with the risk of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), is Analyst

emerging as a potential operational tailwind for Australian bulk miners. While the dim.ariyasinghe@ubs.com

combination historically drives hotter and drier conditions across eastern Australia, +61-3-9242 6385

Queensland and NSW coal producers are entering the cycle with strong water storage Levi Spry

levels and relatively favourable operating conditions. This is significant because El Niño Analyst

events are often associated with below-average rainfall across key mining regions, levi.spry@ubs.com