HUB24 4Q26 Update - underlying flows take pause

研报英文原文证据摘录

HUB24 4Q26 Update - underlying flows take pause

Global Research

21 July 2026ab

HUB24 Equities

Australia4Q26 Update - underlying flows take pause

Diversified Financial

12-month rating Neutral

4Q26 FUA and Flows robust against uncertain macro backdrop

4Q26 Custodial FUA $139.5bn was stronger than expected (+0.2%/+1.6% vs UBS/ 12m price target A$86.00

Cons), driven by higher MTM impacts, and relatively robust net flows of $4.2bn (UBS

$4.2bn, -6% vs Cons $4.45bn). Considering the risk to flows was skewed to the

Price (21 Jul 2026) A$83.10

downside given the volatile macro backdrop and NWL's soft 4Q flow print, our view is

that this is a 'better than feared' outcome. Nevertheless, net inflows were largely flat on RIC: HUB.AX BBG: HUB AU

pcp (ex-large migrations), and do point to an underlying slowdown despite strong

Trading data and key metrics

adviser growth. Following recent tax changes in the Federal Budget, while Super has

52-wk range A$118.59-69.89

continued to grow as a relative beneficiary, HUB noted that the more discretionary IDPS

flows declined. Whilst longer-term market structural drivers remain intact, we continue Market cap. A$6.75b/US$4.73b

to maintain a cautious outlook near-term given cyclical headwinds. Neutral. Shares o/s 81.2m (ORD)

Free float 86%

Adviser productivity metrics moderating Avg. daily volume ('000) 289

HUB added #100 active advisers in the qtr, totalling 5,649 (1.8% q/q, 11% y/y), Avg. daily value (m) A$23.3

equating to ~38% market reach of the ~14.9K industry advisers. Adviser growth Common s/h equity (06/26E) A$0.56b

continues to outpace NWL (~6% pcp) as a leading indicator of total flows. However, P/BV (06/26E) 12.2x

adviser productivity metrics in 4Q for HUB have moderated to ~$0.75m NFF per average Net debt to EBITDA (06/26E) NM