Alkane Resources: FY27 guidance drifts higher as inorganic growth remains on the cards; retain Buy

研报英文原文证据摘录

Alkane Resources: FY27 guidance drifts higher as inorganic growth remains on the cards; retain Buy

ith a permitted mine, a recently acquired processing solution, and emerging

exploration success. The Ravensthorpe study has the project as a 77kozpa Au equiv producer, with

$138m startup capex and ~$440m base case NPV. ALK built its 4% stake by backing the project early

through 2024-2025, and its expertise in sulfide ore processing (applicable to Ravensthorpe) could

open up partnering opportunities. ALK’s stake is worth ~$15m of MM8's $382m market cap.

UBS VIEW We trim our 50:50 EV/EBITDA:DCF blended PT to $1.75/sh, and retain a Buy rating. 3x assets

generating strong cashflow and a healthy balance sheet, positions the company well to fund growth.

EVIDENCE Our analysis is based upon a detailed modelling & blended valuation, scenario testing, reported

resource and reserve statements, review of exploration/organic growth options, and industry and

sector-specific information, including gold peer comps, and recent Costerfield site visit.

WHAT´S PRICED IN? Our modelling is pricing in flat US$3,450/oz gold price indefinitely at spot AUD, just ahead of our LT

price of US$3,250/oz real but well below spot prices of ~$4,000/oz. At spot gold to perpetuity, our

blended valuation lifts a modest ~3% to A$1.80/sh.Please

Upside/Downside

Spectrum

Valuedrivers Price forecast Boda-Kaiser risk weight EV/EBITDA multiple

$2.25/sh upside +15% 20% 3.8x

US$3,250/oz LT real, US

$1.75/sh base 10% 3.3x

$4,575/oz for FY28

$0.90/sh downside -15% 0% 2.8x

Source: UBS

Company Description Alkane Resources (ALK.AX, ALK.TO) is an ASX and TSX listed gold miner that operates the Tomingley

and Costerfield mines in Australia, the Björkdal mine in Sweden as well as the Boda-Kaiser