The Sellers Verdict: Latest on e-commerce platform dynamics in Indonesia

研报英文原文证据摘录

The Sellers Verdict: Latest on e-commerce platform dynamics in Indonesia

TikTok Shop Live's

12/26E 4.72 2.99

favourite rating rose from 41% to 45%, while its least favourite rating rose from

12/27E 5.91 4.32

7.5% to 14%. Overall, the market is increasingly becoming a Shopee-TikTok duopoly,

12/28E 7.43 5.39

with Lazada/Tokopedia losing 4-9ppt/3-4ppt share in favourite/top sales platform YoY.

Navin Killa

Logistics gains mature, but remains a key differentiator and moat Analyst

navin.killa@ubs.comShopeeXpress (SPX) adoption has risen from 10% in 2022 to 35% in 2026, although

+852-2971 7594

growth appears to be peaking at 35-40%. Logistics costs have also stabilised at cRp8k

for same-city and Rp14–15k for domestic intercity, suggesting cost savings from here Calvin Chur

will likely moderate. SPX remains Shopee merchants' preferred delivery option (35%), Analyst

calvin.chur@ubs.com

while 54% of TikTok Shop merchants still rely on 3PLs. Importantly, merchants now view

+65-6495 3992

"simplifying the transaction process" as equally important as low prices, showing the

value of seamless platform-logistics integration which Shopee has an edge given SPX. Aakash Rawat, CFA

Analyst

aakash.rawat@ubs.com

Long-term monetization runway remains intact, despite recent moderation

+65-6495 8283

While take rates continued to rise, the pace moderated in 2026, with Shopee's take rate

+16bps (vs +56bps in 2025) and TikTok Shop's +6bps (vs +14bps in 2025). Merchants'

willingness to pay for visibility eased slighty YoY, down 60-90bps as a % online sales

across platforms, likely reflecting softer sentiment amid weak Indo macro. That said, we

believe runway for long-term take rate increases is intact: 1) online selling is still viewed