Indonesian Metals Sector: New preference: upgrade copper and downgrade gold

研报英文原文证据摘录

Indonesian Metals Sector: New preference: upgrade copper and downgrade gold

Global Research

20 July 2026ab

Indonesian Metals Sector Equities

IndonesiaNew preference: upgrade copper and

downgrade gold Mining & Metals

Igor Putra

Analyst

igor.putra@ubs.com

New bottom-up: nickel (maintain) > copper (upgrade) > gold (downgrade) +62-21-2554 7033

We spoke with non-listed/listed metal companies, from upstream to downstream such Ivan Reynaldo Sutheja

as gold retailers, pawn shops, High Pressure Acid Leach (HPAL) operators and gold/nickel Analyst

miners. We cross checked the collected feedback with our live port tracker for nickel/ ivan-reynaldo.sutheja@ubs.com

copper to derive our new preference in Indonesian metals. We expect upside for copper +62-21-2554 7037

and downside for gold equities, urging our new bottom-up view: we maintain nickel Daniel Major

(INCO>NIC>MBMA>NCKL>ANTM), upgrade copper (AMMN>MDKA) and downgrade Analyst

gold (MDKA>ANTM>BRMS). All companies are Buy-rated, ex BRMS at a Neutral. daniel.major@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 3472

Less positive on Indonesian gold given headwind surprises, but... Dim Ariyasinghe

We recently downgraded gold to our second metals pick on weaker domestic gold Analyst

demand appetite amid weak gold prices (Figure 12). We think the domestic gold dim.ariyasinghe@ubs.com

scenario has worsened given the January 2026 export duty leading to a gold oversupply +61-3-9242 6385

onshore, worsened by falling gold prices capping local demand. 1) We flag a Timothy Handerson

broadening trend of weak domestic gold demand reducing sales for gold retailers and in Analyst

turn miners. But, a pawnbroker we talked to is doing well and in fact saw a rise in timothy.handerson@ubs.com

collateralized gold lending, implying a rising need from customers to raise cash.