EMEA Economic Perspectives: Greece: 4 key themes on macro and banks

研报英文原文证据摘录

EMEA Economic Perspectives: Greece: 4 key themes on macro and banks

Global Research

20 July 2026ab

EMEA Economic Perspectives Economics

EMEA EmergingGreece: 4 key themes on macro and banks

Gyorgy Kovacs

Economist

What are the most frequently asked questions on Greek macro and markets gyorgy.kovacs@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 7563

Greece is still viewed very favourably in our client conversations. We discuss four topics

of interest. First, how resilient is this year's growth outlook given the impact of the Stephan Potgieter, CFA

AnalystMiddle East conflict. Second, is 2026 set out to be another year of fiscal

stephan.potgieter@ubs.com

outperformance? Third, polling and trends for the upcoming general elections in 2027. +44-20-7568 8162

Fourth, for the banks, is the corporate credit cycle sustainable, and is there further re-

rating potential?

Theme#1: How is growth holding up in face of an oil shock

We deep-dive into three there potential channels of transmission from the energy shock

to the economy: a) direct impact on inflation and consumer income dynamics; b) any

effect on tourism; and c) impact on sentiment. Overall, the combined effects of higher

energy prices and announced subsidies for Q2 2026 would still leave households

somewhat worse off in Q2 (and beyond). So far indications are for Greece to have

another record year for tourism in 2026, and the fall-out from the energy shock for now

feels fairly limited for the tourism sector. We marginally trim our GDP growth projection

by 20bps to 2.0% for 2026 (2025: 2.1%), while keeping our 2027 estimate unchanged

at 1.8%. In our view the resilience is partly due to the availability of EU funds and the

comfortable fiscal position, which allowed the government to come up with stimulus

measures.