Canada Economic Perspectives: Limited growth impact, but a reminder the risks

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Canada Economic Perspectives: Limited growth impact, but a reminder the risks

Global Research

21 July 2026ab

Canada Economic Perspectives Economics

AmericasLimited growth impact, but a reminder the risks

Abigail Watt

Economist

A new set of US tariffs for Canada abigail.watt@ubs.com

+1-212-882 6929

Yesterday the US announced a 50% tariff on certain exports from Canada to take effect

after 12:01 a.m. eastern time on August 19, 2026. The White House fact sheet, see Jonathan Pingle

Economisthere, stated that the tariffs were to be imposed in response to “Canada’s discriminatory

jonathan.pingle@ubs.com

treatment of American products.” There were three separate Presidential proclamations +1-212-713 2225

with respect to motor vehicles, here, alcohol, here, and dairy, here.

Amanda Wilcox

Drawing on the annexes published alongside the three proclamations from the amanda.wilcox@ubs.com

President, we estimate that ~$20 billion, 0.6% of total US imports, will be covered by +1-212-713 3899

the tariff (in 2024 value terms). With a 50% tariff rate applied to these goods we

Jalen Nichols

estimate this would raise the WATR applied to Canadian imports by 2.2pp to 6.8% and Economist

add 0.3pp to the US WATR. jalen.nichols@ubs.com

+1-212-882 6905

The tariffs cover a relatively small share of Canada-US trade

For the Canadian economy, the goods covered represent ~5% of Canadian exports to

the US in 2024 value terms and the implications would depend on the extent of demand

destruction stemming from the tariffs. A rough way to think about the impact is to scale

the value of exports potentially destroyed by the tariffs as a share of GDP, and then apply

a multiplier effect to capture potential upstream / downstream supplier effects, price

elasticity of demand, and potential investment response.