Improving Growth Formula - Raising Growth Forecasts

研报英文原文证据摘录

Improving Growth Formula - Raising Growth Forecasts

IdeaM

Raising our forecasts in Web Presence & Productivity

Taking a more positive stance on the durability of growth

trends

IONOS' net new customer addition volume has been on a beat trend over the past

year: This metric captures the net additions to the IONOS customer base, which in FY25

ended at c. 6.6 million customers. The customer base had been growing at a low-single-

digit % rate since 2020; c. +2% in 2020, 2021, and 2022, and then ticked up to c. 3% in

2023 and 2024. However, in 2025, y/y customer growth accelerated to c. 5% (with a

consistent quarterly acceleration through the year), with net customer count up c. 6% in

1Q26. Because this is a net customer acquisition figure, it summarises two factors; the

underlying customer churn rates, as well as the true new customer acquisition activity. We

think churn has been relatively stable within the IONOS base (at c. 1% per month), which

would mean that this acceleration in total customer growth has come from new customer

acquisition. Visualising the annual net customer additions, these have markedly increased

from 163k in FY24, to 308k in FY25, and we now forecast 431k in FY26 (up from 401k

previously).

1Q26 net additions were at a record level (+180k): Marketing investment was higher

year-on-year and particularly concentrated in the first quarter, which management

describes as a peak customer-acquisition period. Encouragingly, customer acquisition cost

efficiency metrics reportedly improved, suggesting the increase was volume-led rather

than simply the result of paying more for each customer. We still think risk here near-term

is to the upside – IONOS posted +180k net adds in 1Q26, and while this was supported by