China Logistics, Express Parcel and Ecommerce: Incremental quality-led recovery in motion, with YMM and J&T now leading the sector’s next phase; 2Q26 preview

研报英文原文证据摘录

China Logistics, Express Parcel and Ecommerce: Incremental quality-led recovery in motion, with YMM and J&T now leading the sector’s next phase; 2Q26 preview

Asia Pacific Equity Research

22 July 2026

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China Logistics, Express Parcel

and Ecommerce

Incremental quality-led recovery in motion, with YMM

and J&T now leading the sector’s next phase; 2Q26

preview

June sector data and the 1M price action point to a constructive but still evolving China

backdrop for China logistics. The entire group outperformed HSI and HXC in Infrastructure, Industrials &

June, marking a rare month of broad-based positive returns, but this comes after a Transport

ACperiod of pronounced YTD dispersion—several names remain below water for the Karen Li, CFA

year. The improvement was underpinned by sector revenue growth of 7.7% Y/Y (852) 2800-8589

(vs. volume +3.8% Y/Y), ongoing ASP recovery (Rmb7.77, +3.8% Y/Y), and karen.yy.li@jpmorgan.com

robust profit alerts from the A-share Tongda players, with 2Q26 implied net profit J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/

J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited

growth for YTO, STO, and Yunda accelerating to 92%, 152%, and 136% Y/Y,

respectively. Anti-involution efforts continue to support rational pricing and Mufan Shi

margin repair, while technology upgrades and business mix optimization are (852) 2800-8502

mufan.shi@jpmorgan.com

driving further differentiation. Against this backdrop, we maintain a broadly J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/