HSBC & STAN: 2Q26 preview: NII tailwinds support HSBC; STAN faces tough comps, but fundamentals intact

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HSBC & STAN: 2Q26 preview: NII tailwinds support HSBC; STAN faces tough comps, but fundamentals intact

ening on

individual ODI, there has been relaxation on corporate cross-border requirements. On

top of that, the speech by Governor Pan Gong Sheng of the PBOC on 7 July indicates

an acceleration in RMBI (link, Table 1). We estimated that China CIB income (incl.

China-originated network income) accounted for ~10% of Group revenue for STAN,

while only low to mid-single-digits for HSBC. While it is challenging to gauge the

actual impact of the regulatory changes (link), this presents a potential tailwind to our

non-NII estimates, particularly for STAN.

Table 1: Key measures announced by Pan on the Hong Kong FIC & Bond Connect Summit to

accelerate RMB internationalization

Key measures Details

- Annual net investment quota raised from Rmb500bn to Rmb800bn

PBOC expanded Bond

- Southbound bonds included in repo support scope

Connect Southbound quota

- Product range extended to HKD bonds and RMB bond-related products; scheme

and scope

extended to cover Macau bond market.

- Tenor extended to up to 3 years, per HKMA, adding 9-month, 2-year and 3-year

PBOC supported HKMA to tenors, effective 10 July 2026

expand RMB Business Facility - Further size up the facility from Rmb200bn to Rmb500bn

(RBF) - HKMA also studying a 7-day CNH liquidity tender mechanism and issuance of

offshore RMB short-term debt instruments to complete the CNH yield curve

- 5-year offshore RMB CGB futures to launch in HK soon

- Bond Connect Company to be upgraded into a trading platform operator (CFETS

PBOC announced measures

working with HKMA and SFC), providing bond/money market/FX trading

to diversify HK's RMB market

infrastructure

infrastructure and products