Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – W.R. Berkley Corp. (WRB.N)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e

NWP Growth (%) 6.2 2.3 3.6 3.8

Combined Ratio (%) 90.7 90.8 91.2 91.3

Core Loss Ratio (%) 59.8 59.7 59.9 60.0

PYD Ratio (%) (0.0) (0.0) (0.1) (0.1)

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Claims inflation & reserve strength RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

Commercial pricing cycle Durable P&C pricing power

Weather trends (Severity & Frequency) Improving underwriting margins EPS

Underlying margins Stronger capital management and M&A ($) 4.46 4.90

Yield cycle Improved interest rate environment accretive 4.67

to earnings

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE RISKS TO DOWNSIDE Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland Decelerating commercial lines/specialty pricing 0-10% China and India Social inflation headwinds & weather-related

0-10% Europe ex UK risks

0-10% Japan Declining interest rate environment &

0-10% UK investment losses

80-90% North America

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate OWNERSHIP POSITIONING

View explanation of regional hierarchies here

Inst. Owners, % Active 53%

MS ALPHA MODELS HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.4x

HF Sector Net Exposure 7.5%

2/5 24 Month 2/5 3 Month

BEST Horizon MOST Horizon Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / Short

Quintile exposure. Sector % of Total Net Exposure = (For a

particular sector: Long Exposure - Short Exposure) /

(Across all sectors: Long Exposure – Short Exposure).