Storebrand: Model update post-2Q26: raising cash earnings, lowering IFRS earnings - reiterating UW rating

研报英文原文证据摘录

Storebrand: Model update post-2Q26: raising cash earnings, lowering IFRS earnings - reiterating UW rating

ve to ghislaine.sparling@jpmorgan.com

89% by 2028E (~1pt better than our previous assumption). We also continue Key Changes (FYE Dec)

to expect double-digit top-line growth over this period as we assume STB Prev Cur Δ

continues to gain market share in Norwegian retail P&C. Adj. EPS - 26E (Nkr) 13.57 12.47 -8.1%

Adj. EPS - 27E (Nkr) 14.12 13.65 -3.3%

• We are raising our Savings (non-guaranteed) cash profit forecasts by

5.5% in 2027E and >3.5% in 2028E. This is based on higher AUM than we Style Exposure

previosuly forecast in Norway, Sweden and in the asset management business.

• We are lowering our Guaranteed Pension forecasts by ~7%-8% over

2026E-28E. Although this segment exceeded our expectations in 2Q26, this

was due to an exceptionally high profit sharing result, while AUM in Norway

and Sweden was lower than we expected. Allowing for expected returns, we

still expect profit-sharing in Norway to exceed the NOK400mn guidance by

2028E (supported by more flexible profit-sharing regulations in the Paid Up

Pensions segment in Norway), and for Sweden to generate profit-sharing close

to the NOK300mn ambition.

• We are also lowering our Solvency II forecasts, by ~9ppts to 205% by end

2026E. This reflects a ~7ppt lower Solvency II ratio than we expected in 2Q26,

as well as a lower estimate for the increase to Solvency II from the change in

profit-sharing rules in Norway, where management is guiding towards a mid-

single-digit benefit (down from our previous expectation of a mid-to-high-

single-digit benefit).

Our lower IFRS earnings forecasts reflect the fact that 2Q26 IFRS profit trends

were lower than we expected, with a lower operating profit, lower guaranteed