Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

RiskRisk RewardReward– KGHM-PolskaKGHMMiedzPolskaSA (KGH.WA)Miedz SA (KGH.WA)

Uncertainty Rises but Deep Discount Provides Support

PRICE TARGET PLN 340.00 EQUAL-WEIGHT THESIS

case is rapidly shifting asWe derive our Price Target using a simple average of 5.9x EV/EBITDA (2026-28) and P/NAV, ▪Investment

averaging both our base case and spot assumptions, to account for the current environment operational improvements and capex

of elevated metal prices. (I) We apply a target multiple of 5.9x, one SD below the historical discipline take a back seat to M&A and

average to account for uncertainties around future investments. (II) Our P/NAV stems from a diversification into polyhalite, increasing

DCF with a group average WACC of 8.2% and growth rate of 0% execution and capital allocation risks.

copper assets continue to underpin PLN 316.18 ▪Core

cash generation, with the new five-year plan

Consensus Price Target Distribution PLN 185.12 PLN 450.00 supporting expectations for EBITDA and MS PT

organic FCF, although future cashSource: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

deployment is becoming less predictable.

remains undemanding, but a re- ▪Valuation

rating may prove elusive, as strategic

RISK REWARD CHART uncertainty, weaker earnings momentum

and diversification away from copper are

likely to keep the shares trading at a PLN PLNPLNPLN 457.00(+55.73%)457.00457.00(+55.73%)(+55.73%)

discount to peers.

400 Consensus Rating Distribution

PLNPLNPLN 340.00(+15.86%)340.00340.00(+15.86%)(+15.86%) 36% Overweight

300 PLNPLNPLN 293.45293.45293.45 27% Equal-weight

36% Underweight

MS Rating

PLNPLNPLN 215.00(-26.73%)215.00215.00(-26.73%)(-26.73%) Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

Risk Reward Themes

Self-help: Positive