Consensus Refresh - Jeff More Cautious on F27

研报英文原文证据摘录

Consensus Refresh - Jeff More Cautious on F27

a firm base on earnings. For F27 EPS, consensus is now $158.8c vs prev $161.4c. -4%

Overall - the street is looking for flattish EBIT growth and is not incorporating an earnings FY26E Jeff OldFY27Econs Cons FY28E

reset. If the company over-delivers on cost savings in F26, then a F27 reset could take place .Source: Jefferies, Company data, VUMA consensus

on org EBIT without EPS moving materially.

Exhibit 2 - Organic EBIT (%)

6.7%

Despite our materially lower earnings, shares look cheap. On our lower than street forecasts, 8%6%

shares are trading on cal 2027 PE 14x. If no earnings cut comes, and consensus cal 2027 EPS 4% 4.7% 5.0%

2%can be held, then shares are on 12.8x PE. From our conversations with investors, we believe 0.2% 0.6% 0.2%

that buyside expectations on F27 EPS are closer to our levels vs sellside forecasts. -2%0% -1.0% -0.4%

-4%

-4.2%Do we get guidance with the CMD on 6 Aug? We think the company will provide prescriptive -6%

guidance for F27 (org sales/EBIT FCF) however it might be too soon for a quantitative med- FY26E Jeff OldFY27Econs Cons FY28E

term framework to be given. Instead, we think qualitative commentary such as winning .Source: Jefferies,8 0% Company data, VUMA consensus

global market share and creating significant value for shareholders could be given.

CMD 6 Aug could provide some early proof points of new strategy. With the dividend having

already been cut with 1H results, we expect the company to be on the front foot in driving

change. We see upside to the current cost programme $625m and the CMD could provide early

proof points on the growth pivot to build competitive category strategies and drive stronger

execution with customers. This could include selective price resets (eg Casamigos USA),