Movida (MOVI3.SA): 2Q’26 Preview: Continued Ops Strength; Adjusting for Car Market and SELIC Hurdles

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Movida (MOVI3.SA): 2Q’26 Preview: Continued Ops Strength; Adjusting for Car Market and SELIC Hurdles

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21 Jul 2026 06:37:07 ET │ 15 pages

Movida (MOVI3.SA)

2Q'26 Preview: Continued Ops Strength; Adjusting for Car Market and

SELIC Hurdles

CITI'S TAKE Buy / High Risk

Price (20 Jul 26 18:00) R$8.61 We maintain our Buy/High Risk rating for attractive valuation (4.3x P/E

Target price R$13.00↓ 2027E), but our updated forecasts (see Fig 1) justify a lower TP of

R$13.00/sh (from R$16.80). We expect few earnings surprises after 2Q from R$16.80

operational results, but solid operations in a seasonally softer quarter may Expected share price return 51.0%

also translate into better 3Q earnings (that could be unveiled if it releases Expected dividend yield 4.4%

earnings guidance). On Seminovos, we adjust for structurally lower sales Expected total return 55.4%

volumes as the company focuses on extending asset lifecycle. This Market Cap R$3,463M

strategy should give Movida more flexibility to overcome potential short-

US$682M term car market hurdles, maintaining stable depreciation and Seminovos

margins this year. However, to us, it still seems exposed to medium-term

car market risks that may delay depreciation normalization, while an older

fleet could pressure maintenance costs, customer perception and resale Filipe NielsenAC

conditions (more in the note). Finally, earnings growth looks even more +55-11-4009-5213

under pressure with Citi's higher SELIC expectations. Earnings release filipe.nielsen@citi.com

August 12th.

Longer asset lifecycle dampening car market hurdles... — As we discussed

in previous notes, it's part of the company's strategy to maintain lower Seminovos

sales volumes, targeting longer asset lifecycle, especially in the RAC segment. Within