Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Brambles Ltd. (BXB.AX)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS CATALYST CALENDAR

Drivers Jun 2025 Jun 2026e Jun 2027e Jun 2028e Date Event Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley

US Pallets Volume growth (%) 0.0 NA NA NA 20 Aug 2026 Full Year 2026 Brambles Ltd Earnings Release

Europe Pallets volume growth (%) 0.0 NA NA NA

APAC Pallets volume growth (%) 0.0 NA NA NA

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Top-line growth in Europe and Americas, which RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Jun 2026e

drive over 80% of revenue. Higher LFL volume growth

Ability to achieve margin expansion through New business wins accelerate Sales / 7,032

automation/supply chain benefits and/or cost Price increases above cost Revenue 6,870 7,364

efficiencies. Faster repair normalisation (US$, mn) 7,051

Progress on reducing capital intensity of the Stronger pricing recovery

business and improving ROCI.

2,427

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE EBITDA 2,290 2,515GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE (US$, mn)

Repair costs prove structural 2,435

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland Higher ongoing capex/pallet purchases required 0-10% China and India Weaker macro backdrop delays pricing

0-10% Latin America recovery and volume growth Net income 957

0-10% MEA 901 964 (US$, mn)

0-10% Mainland China 938

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING 0-10% UK

30-40% Europe ex UK Inst. Owners, % Active 60.9% 0.68

30-40% North America EPS 0.66 0.73

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research (US$)

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate 0.69

View explanation of regional hierarchies here

Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

MS ALPHA MODELS Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

5/5 3 Month

MOST Horizon

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is

the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored

Quintile

Morgan Stanley Research 3