Anglo American: Kumba H1‘26 EBITDA guide implies -6% vs consensus, -14% vs JPMe; Anglo reports Q2 production 23 July

研报英文原文证据摘录

Anglo American: Kumba H1‘26 EBITDA guide implies -6% vs consensus, -14% vs JPMe; Anglo reports Q2 production 23 July

Dominic O'Kane AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 7742-6729 21 July 2026 C A Z E N O V E

dominic.j.okane@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Anglo American (Underweight; Price Target: 3,350p)

Investment Thesis

Our Anglo American recommendation is Underweight. In 2024, Anglo commenced a major

corporate restructuring involving: the sale of its Coal assets (completed), the de-merger of

Anglo Platinum, and the divestment of its Diamonds and Nickel divisions. This will leave

an Anglo streamlined along Copper and high-grade Iron Ore. A merger is also underway

with Teck Resources (covered by JPM US Analyst Bill Peterson). Anglo is trading close to

our fair value, however, we remain cautious on Anglo’s near-term earnings risk, particularly

where the portfolio is exposed to higher freight and cost inflation, and where operational

uncertainties could emerge (e.g., at Collahuasi if the desalination plant suspension is

prolonged and begins to impact recoveries). In addition, we expect weaker earnings in

Diamonds and sale/exit remains challenging.

Valuation

We utilise a granular, sum-of-the-parts Dec-27 price target methodology. Our Fair Value is

calculated as the average of: (1) 0.9x NPV across each individual division; and (2)

individual divisional EV/EBITDA target multiples for 2028E EBITDA (ranging between

Copper at 9.0x, Kumba Iron Ore at 5.5x). Our examination of Fair Value seeks to provide

investors with insights into Anglo American’s intrinsic equity value across its divisions,

reflecting long-dated asset value (NPV) on comparable company trading multiples (EV/

EBITDA). Our valuation method is calculated from Anglo American’s attributable cash