Emerging Markets Equity Strategy: Deleveraging, Tech Sell-off, Tactical Rotation, 2Q Earnings Catalyst

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Emerging Markets Equity Strategy: Deleveraging, Tech Sell-off, Tactical Rotation, 2Q Earnings Catalyst

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the non-AI EM cohort faces three key near-to-medium-term risks: (1) a re- (44-20) 7134-5887

escalation of the conflict in Iran, which is again pressuring energy prices; (2) higher david.aserkoff@jpmorgan.com

U.S. rates and a stronger dollar (potentially catalyzing further central-bank J.P. Morgan Securities plc

tightening through 2H26); and (3) a rising probability of a “Super El Niño”. Emerging Markets Equity Strategy

Mixo Das

Notwithstanding this ongoing drawdown wave, our base case remains for the (852) 2800-0511

structural AI strength to resume driving markets higher. mixo.das@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P.

• Our US strategists note that 2Q26 hyperscaler results should continue to Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited Asia Equity Strategy

validate the AI infrastructure build-out, as investors increasingly seek

evidence that incremental ROIC can justify sustained, elevated spending Joy Wang

levels. Consensus estimates now project AI-related capex to approach ~$870B (852) 2800-2322

joy.y.wang@jpmorgan.com

by end-2026 (~77% y/y), with hyperscalers to account for ~$750 billion of that J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P.

(Figure 4StretconsensusforTop4U.S.hyperscalercapex). Our Internet analysts remain positive on the capex outlook for 2026 Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited

and have meaningfully raised their 2027 projections (Figure 3DatacentercapexforTop4U.S.hyperscaler). This implies

upside risk to consensus (sell-side) capex estimates for the next 4-6

quarters.

• Across the five largest hyperscalers, aggregate debt issuance has increased

from ~$40–50B in 2022 (largely to fund buybacks) to ~$190B in 2026