US Application Software: SCM Software Q2 Preview: Mixed Signals, Maintained Conviction

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US Application Software: SCM Software Q2 Preview: Mixed Signals, Maintained Conviction

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21 Jul 2026 03:19:50 ET │ 20 pages

US Application Software

SCM Software Q2 Preview: Mixed Signals, Maintained Conviction

CITI'S TAKE

George Kurosawa, CFA AC

We enter 2Q26 earnings with a more nuanced view: cautious anecdotes have +1-415-658-4247

emerged against an otherwise broadly constructive backdrop, and recent george.kurosawa@citi.com

sharp stock recoveries (MANH +25%, SPSC +24% over the past month) raise

the bar for upside surprises. MANH: Partner feedback was more mixed this Steven Enders, CFA

quarter than we have heard recently, including anecdotes of larger customers +1-415-951-1745

re-evaluating roadmaps, leaving us incrementally cautious into the print. We steven.enders@citi.com

are raising ’26 and ’27 margin ests on the RIF and raising our TP to $193 despite

near-term caution on an updated valuation regression and estimates. SPSC:

Improving web traffic trends, particularly in June, give us confidence that core

stabilization from Q1 has continued into Q2. We attempt to size the 3P

divestiture (see here), lowering CY26/CY27 rev by $11M/$18M while raising our

TP to $82 on an updated valuation regression.

MANH (reports after close on 7/28) — Our Q2 partner checks were more mixed than

what we have heard since Q4. While customer convos at Momentum in May were

largely constructive (see here), subsequent checks with two platinum-tier partners

revealed divergent messages. One partner indicated that purchasing hesitation from

last year has been steadily dissipating, including a pickup in WMS RFPs. The other,

however, cited anecdotes of large customers dialing back projected roadmap

commitments tied to supply chain cost pressures and top-down reviews of