EBITDA rode strong pricing momentum: Higher HRC prices delivered strong EBITDA beat; maintain Buy and TP of INR1,400

研报英文原文证据摘录

EBITDA rode strong pricing momentum: Higher HRC prices delivered strong EBITDA beat; maintain Buy and TP of INR1,400

Global Markets Research

JSW Steel JSTL.NS JSTL IN 20 July 2026

EQUITY: METALS & MINING

RatingEBITDA rode strong pricing momentum Remains Buy

Target priceHigher HRC prices delivered strong EBITDA beat; Remains INR 1,400

maintain Buy and TP of INR1,400

Closing price INR 1,237 17 July 20261QFY27 results: Stronger pricing growth delivers EBITDA beat

1QFY27 consolidated EBITDA of INR93.7bn beat our forecast and the Bloomberg Implied upside +13.2%consensus estimate by 16% and 12%, respectively. Adjusted for BPSL, the consolidated

realization improved ~INR9,800/t q-q, or 15%, of which INR4,000/t was due to steel price Market Cap (USD mn) 31,979.4

improvement, INR2,000/t higher than our estimate. Consolidated volumes of 6.3MT ADT (USD mn) 24.1

increased 4% y-y, in line with our estimate. Adjusted EBITDA/t of INR14,997/t beat our

estimate by 16%, up 23% q-q.

Relative performance chart2QFY27 preview: Management expects costs to remain in check; we expect

INR180/t q-q drop in EBITDA

We expect consolidated volumes to grow by ~9% y-y to 6.9MT in 2QFY27F on account of the

ramp-up of BF3 at Vijaynagar and improved volumes from US operations. On steel realization,

while the HRC prices have remained resilient so far, we expect some easing due to (1) a

seasonally weaker quarter and (2) the impact of increased imports from FTA countries. While we

do not expect imports to remain high through the year, we expect a 4% q-q decline in 2Q as a

result. Furthermore, we expect higher coking coal cost/t (up USD20/t q-q) to impact margins. As

a result, we expect JSW Steel to report ~INR11,800/t EBITDA in 3QFY27F, down INR3,000/t q-

q.

Valuation: Maintain Buy and TP of INR1,400